Welcome To Splitsville Part 2

July 16, 2010

Originally published on Advanced Fantasy Baseball. Stats current as of the All-Star break.

…Continued from Part One

Here’s the rest of my 2010 All-Splits team for players owned by 50% or fewer teams according to Yahoo.

Vs. Righties

C: John Jaso (6% owned) Although he’s cooled considerably since May, the 26 year old catcher came seemingly out of nowhere to perform admirably behind the plate for the Rays. Jaso has put together nice numbers against righties, going .295/.412/.397 in 177 PA, while struggling against lefties in limited action. Interestingly enough, Jaso’s MiLB Splits are pretty even throughout his five years on the farm. With enough plate appearances against big league lefties (since returning from injury, the struggling Kelly Shoppach has been getting a lot of appearances against southpaws), Jaso might be able to prove he’s deserving of a full-time gig.

1B: Lyle Overbay (4% owned) It seems like you could pencil Overbay into this list every year and still somehow he manages to hold down a full-time job in Toronto. The veteran first baseman has always done better against right-handers (.264/.353/.443 in 269 PA so far in 2010) while doing little against lefties, but that split is even more dramatic this season as he’s stunk it up to a tune of .192/.232/.308 so far. With first base so rich in talent, there’s no reason to have to roster Overbay outside of the deepest of leagues. If you do however (maybe you own Kendry Morales and Todd Helton, both shelved with injuries), you’d do well to sit him against lefties or platoon him with a guy like Daric Barton or Adam Rosales.

2B: Omar Infante (9% owned) The man who may forever be known (through no fault of his own) as the worst All-Star selection ever is the only 2010 All-Star to also make my All-Splits team. The jack-of-all-trades has been consistently mediocre from both sides of the plate through out his nine years of mostly part-time, MLB play. This season however, the right-handed Infante has shown infinite prowess if not power against righty hurlers, posting a .364/.384/.447 in 138 PA in while disappearing against lefties in limited time (.262/.303/.311 in 67 PA). If he receives regular playing time, I would expect that gap to close quite a bit before season’s end.

SS: Wilson Valdez (3% owned) Wait, what? Yeah I put Valdez on this list, what of it? That’s how shallow SS is and the 32 year old journeyman plays in a hitter’s paradise. While starting in place of the injured Jimmy Rollins at short and now Chase Utley over at second, Valdez has proved useful against righties (.283/.300/.449 with all 4 of his HR in 133 PA), while doing next to nothing against southpaws. Outside of a hot streak, I don’t think he’s rosterable in 12 team mixed, but I did have him for a cup of coffee on my 15 team mixed league a few weeks ago.

3B: Chase Headley (45% owned) The Padres every day third baseman started off like a ball of fire in April, only to come back down to earth with a thud in May and June. He’s been picking it up again lately however, and remains solid against right-handed pitching going .306/.351/.427 with 5 of his 6 homers in 251 PA. His weakness against left-handers remains glaring however, as he’s been shut down to the tune of .197/.258/.248 in 129 PA. His sneaky speed makes you want to pencil him in every day in case he swipes a bag, but his ineptitude while facing lefties removes that option unless you like zeros. Cavernous Petco Park saps his power and that weak Padre lineup does him no favors either, so unless you’ve got another 3B eligible guy to platoon him with, I’d stay away from Headley in all but deep leagues.

OF: Hideki Matsui (37% owned) Godzilla is a shell of the player he was a few years ago with the Yankees and he’s been absolutely dreadful against lefties this year – .188/.224/.366 in 107 PA. Against righties however, Matsui can still hit and he’s put up a useful .281/.381/.408 line in 231 PA. Consider him rosterable in deeper leagues, when platooned with an outfielder who can rake lefties like Matt Diaz, Jeff Francoeur or Cody Ross.

OF: J.D. Drew (44% owned) The captain of my all-splits team, J.D. Drew is the epitome of a platoon player – when healthy, of course. Drew demolishes right-handers with a .315/.400/.586 line, along with 9 of his 10 home runs in 210 PA. Conversely, he’s atrocious against lefties, going .185/.265/.235 in 91 PA. If you’ve got Drew on your team, platoon him or else!

OF: David DeJesus (50% owned) The Royals outfielder is quietly having a very nice year all around – 45 R/5 HR/ 36 RBI .326/.395/.460 and his career splits aren’t that far apart, however this season he’s really shined against right-handers, going .344/.403/.478 in 275 PA. I’ve currently got him in my 12 team mixed league and I sit him against lefties in favor of Dexter Fowler, since his .272/.372/.407 line with little pop or speed in 95 PA doesn’t offer much in that format. DeJesus has been mentioned in trade talks with the Red Sox, where I see him in a platoon with Mike Cameron, once Jacoby Ellsbury gets back, which would certainly help his counting numbers against righties.

UTL: Angel Pagan (50% owned) Currently the Mets leader in batting average (.315), Pagan will get the bulk of the playing time in a platoon with Jeff Francoeur, once Carlos Beltran gets back. His speed makes him playable every day right now, but if you can afford to, it’s best to platoon him to take advantage of his splits. Against lefties Pagan has been pretty underwhelming with a .273/.309/.386 line in 96 PA. Facing righties though, Angel has been heavenly, belting out it out at a .335/.398/.512 clip. Platooned with a lefty killer and you’re looking at steady production in the second half.

I’m ending my list here, but there are lots of other players around, who if platooned properly can provide your fantasy team with a nice lift. Who do you think are some other players who could have made the Splitsville All-Stars?

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Head To Head Strategy – The Numbers Game

June 23, 2010

An interesting topic came up over on the Razzball comments today, where you can frequently find me talking baseball and trading zingers with the best writers and most knowledgeable readership in the fantasy game. The question regards the validity of punting pitching categories in a head-to-head league. Regular commenter, Mr2Bits posed the following question this morning:

Anyone ever punt pitching categories, specifically QS/W and K’s? Seems as though I’m going against a guy who has 6 more starts than I do this week and is already 3 for 3 on QS. I’ve reached my IP pitched min and he has no closers so I’d only need about 3 more saves to be safe (already have 2). Guess winning 3 out of 5 categories is better than possibly losing more.

I’m in a similar position this week. My opponent is carrying 11 starters right now, compared to my seven. Two of his guys are going twice, while only Jaime Garcia is scheduled to make two starts this week. That’s 13 starts against my eight. My opponent should gain easy victories in wins, quality starts and strike outs this week by virtue of sheer volume. On the flip side however, I have four closers to his two, my pitching has been very solid as of late and his has been rather shaky. This leads me to believe that it’s likely that I’ll take ERA, WHIP and saves. Playing in a league that has an 80 transaction limit, I’m already up to 42 moves after doing a ton of streaming in the early going of this year. Instead of continuing to burn through transactions, I’d like to be able to save them until the stretch run, in case I’m in really dire straights and need to do some heavy duty streaming to win. Thankfully, it seems that I have finally found a good core group of arms, as the recent success of Jason Hammel, Kris Medlen and Trevor Cahill has stabilized my dubious rotation. Garcia, who I grabbed up early on in the year, has continued to perform as well and has even cut down on his walks lately, improving my WHIP along the way. I won’t get too excited about these young guys though, as I know that things can change fast. A steady, veteran arm is definitely needed for a playoff push. Overall though, I’m happy with my current roster after the big Cruz trade and waiver additions of Felipe Lopez, Angel Pagan, David DeJesus and Johnny Damon, there aren’t any pitchers available on waivers right now that I would want to roster over one of my current players.

So the game plan this week is to run quality over quantity and hope that my opponent will continue his poor pitching, while my hurlers keep faring well. If all goes right for me, I should at least get a split of the six pitching categories. With a little luck, I might even be able to steal wins from him, as I’m currently ahead 1-0. Doubtful but possible. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, I have faith that my offense can win all but the stolen base category, as my opponent has a team full of burners. Runs will be close, but I’m currently up by five. Interestingly enough, we’re tied at three homers a piece. I have little doubt that I can take him in jacks though as I have a rather power heavy team – we’re second in the league with 112 bombs, only one behind the leader. With all said and done, I think this strategy gives me a good shot at taking the week overall.

This isn’t a case of punting a category as much as a strategic decision to play my opponent rather than the schedule. Trying to go toe to toe with him in the pitching counting stats would be a fruitless endeavor – wasting transactions by dropping talented players for mediocre pitchers who may not even get me the victories I want. Worse than that, going that route could possibly blow up in my face and lead to a pitching blow out by inflating my ratios.

We’ll see how it pans out. The Patties are managed by a shrewd owner, who will stop at nothing to beat me. I’ve taken four straight match-ups from him, dating back to the beginning of last season and including my victory in the 2009 finals. So far so good as I enter play today up 7 – 2. When this week is finished, I’ll be sure give an update with the final tally.

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MistaBernadina, Mista Roger Bernadina

June 17, 2010

While he isn’t a stuffy, suit wearing, white-bread office drone, you can say that Nationals outfielder Roger Bernadina, is cut from a particular mold of player. Bernadina has little pop and won’t hit for a ton of average but he runs well and should net you a few steals in exchange for a waiver flier without really hurting your ratios. He’s your basic speed model, playable when he’s hot, SAGNOF option. Since he’s shown a decent walk rate through out his minor league career, I picked him up in the Big Ballers League while searching for some outfield depth. Just in time it seems, since Bernadina hit his second homer in the past three games and threw in a steal for good measure tonight. Would I roster him in 12 team mixed? Not quite yet, but as Mr. Selaticia from Metalocalypse might say, “We shall wait and see…”

What else is going on around the league?

With his first homer in the bigs, Jose Tabata stole the thunder from Pedro Alvarez‘s MLB debut yesterday. I don’t expect many more from the speedy rook, but I’m looking forward to deploying him as a speed option in my 12 team mixed keeper. Actually, the steady John Danks (8 IP 2 ER 6 K 3 BB), struggling Carlos Quentin (2-4, 2 RBI)  and the ChiSox were the story, beating the Pirates 7-2. The Heights’ own Alvarez, the most anticipated young Buc to come up in the game since Barry Bonds, went 0-2 with a BB, a K and a run scored.

Another, slightly more accomplished Pedro was making some news yesterday as Phillies GM, Ruben Amaro was said to have started up preliminary talks with future Hall O’ Famer, Pedro Martinez‘ agent about having him rejoin the Phils after the All-Star break. While it breaks my heart to think about Pedro again pitching for those inbred douche-nozzles in Philly, I’ve always loved watching Pedro work and look forward to seeing him later in the season. As talks heat up and old Pedro comes out from under the mango tree to get into fighting shape, I’d say he’ll soon be worth a flier as the chatter picks up, on the chance he can contribute like he did last year down the stretch.

The fallout from the Conor Jackson for Sam Demel blockbuster continues. In his Oaktown premiere, Jackson batted lead-off and went 2-3 with a BB and a run scored in the 6-2 loss to the Cubbies. Meanwhile, the Diamond Backs sent Demel out against the Red Sox for some mop-up duty in the 6-2 Sawx victory. Demel threw a clean inning, striking out Mike Cameron in the process. I have absolutely no confidence in Aaron Heilman keeping his newly appointed closer gig. His numbers may seem alright on the surface, but he’s got a 4.52 xFIP next to his low 2.83 ERA. Heilman’s never passed the eye-ball test for any Mets fan who’s had the misfortune to witness his many spectacular meltdowns during his time in Flushing. The man’s just not good in a big spot. Demel has had outstanding numbers in the minors and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him closing in the not too distant future. Hoping I’m right about Heilman, as I put in a FAAB bid on Demel in the Big Baller’s League, as he was just added to the Yahoo player list.

The Mets keep winning on the strength of solid starting pitching. Two lesser known hurlers who’ve stepped up are knuckle miester, R.A. Dickey and young lefty, Jonathan Niese. 36 year old Dickey has been a huge surprise for the Flushing faithful, logging four wins and four QS over his 5 starts. Currently holding a 4-0 record with a 2.78 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a 24/10 K/BB split, I’m expecting a blow up somewhere down the road, but he remains a solid streaming option, especially in the friendly confines of Metco Park. I don’t trust knucklers for fantasy purposes, but Dickey throws his fastball a little harder than your average float-baller, clocking in at an average of 84.2 MPH. If his fastball can remain effective, he could continue to keep hitters off balance and induce weak contact (49.5% GB and 9.4% IFFB rates in 2010), which we like.

As primarily a two pitch, fastball-curveball chucker, Niese struggled in his limited time with the big club through ’08 and ’09, before having surgery to repair a torn hamstring last August. Reemerging with an effective cut-fastball as a third pitch and a tad more zip appearing on the fastball, Niese has stepped up, as an effective back-end starter for the Mets this season. In 11 starts (64 1/3 IP) Niese has a line of 4-2, with a 3.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and a 48/21 K/BB split. Since returning from the DL, after suffering a strained hamstring, Niese has come back stronger than ever. Over his last three starts, Niese is 3-0, coughing up only 4 ER in 25 innings (including a 1-hit gem of the Padres that saw Niese face one above the minimum 27 batters) while striking out 15 and walking only three. Niese induces a lot of grounders (50% of batted balls he’s given up have been hit on the ground) and few homers (.7 per 9 IP) and currently carries a somewhat unfortunate .331 BABIP against. Look for that number to come down and Niese to remain a nice streaming option for 12 team leagues.

Dave of Jesus has been performing miracles in K.C., with that gaudy .329 BA and .403 OBP. While he’ll give you nice ratios, DeJesus is basically Freddy Sanchez in the outfield, with a few more counting numbers. I like to think of him as FraGu-lite. That’s not bad if it fills your needs, but as Grey at Razzball said, “the downside is no upside.” One ray of hope for the son of man is that he’s in his walk year and could conceivably be moved by the Royals, as they once again start thinking about next year. I’m going to hazard a guess and say the Bravos would be buyers, since Nate McClouth has been god awful. The Sawx might bite too, since they’ve suffered numerous OF injuries and are currently looking up at the Rays and Yanks in the A.L. East standings. When I asked Grey if he thought DeJesus might be worth adding to in my 12 team mixed league, his response was something to the effect of, “then you’d be stuck watching Royals highlights.” Needless to say I didn’t add him, going for Angel Pagan instead.

So that’s it for now. Next entry, I’ll take a look at a major trade that I made a few days ago in the 12 team mixed keeper league…

In the mean time, enjoy this classic Del video…

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Replacing Nelson Cruz

April 27, 2010

That sound you just heard was the collective groans of fantasy owners everywhere reading that Nelson Cruz and his balky hamstring have finally ended up on the DL. How do I replace a guy who’s Slugging a MLB leading .778? I don’t I suppose. All I can do is try to find some cheap power production to use as a stop-gap measure in Nelly’s absence. As for Nelson’s Texas Rangers? David Murphy will slide over to right and Craig Gentry was called up from AAA Oklahoma City today.

Needing someone to fill those gaping roster spots that I suddenly found in both of my teams, I sought the wisdom of Grey at Razzball (much like the wisdom of Solomon) to make a choice between Mr. Sunglasses At Night or Dave Of Jesus in my 12 team league. While he had a lousy spring and got in manager Ken Macha’s doghouse early, Corey Hart’s got the upside and hits in a lineup that’s been putting up Football scores. David DeJesus has been hitting at a decent enough clip (23/79 14R/2HR/10RBI/1SB/.291/.349) to begin 2010, but he’s also posting a career worst .46 BB/K rate and an inflated .328 BABIP (.318 career BABIP). Oh yeah and he hits in one of the games worst batting orders.

Corey Hart is the best player in a three-man platoon over two outfield spots in Brewland. Carrying a 13/47 4R/2HR/10RBI/2SB/.277/.364 line into play today, he’s been the hot hand, starting three straight games this week. Showing un-Hart-like patience so far this year, he carries a nice 7/9 BB/K split, which I find quite heartening to his SB totals. This guy was a big deal, with 20-20 cred back in ’08 and is currently hitting in a strong lineup, that should provide plenty of opportunities for counting numbers.

In the 15 team NFBC style, Big Ballers League the pickings are a bit slimmer. I thought I had the man for the job, but some sonovabitch grabbed Nate Schierholtz just minutes before I could. That left me with some other less than ideal choices. The underwhelming Austin Kearns being the best of a bunch that includes Chris Dickerson, Eugenio Velez and Matt Diaz. Right. Crap crap and more crap. Not to be confused with photographer Kern, Kearns got a little pop and has been hitting well for Cleveland as of late. Austin, meet Austin Jackson. Don’t get too comfortable Austin. No, not you. The other one. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Maybe Kearns can channel 2006 for two weeks, while Nelly gets right. Lets all us Nelson Cruz owners hold hands and give a silent prayer to the baseball god of hamstrings, in hopes that Senior Boomstick is back soon.

It’s a marathon and not a sprint, I remind myself, so I can’t get too down on my prospects of victory and end up making poor decisions. Now excuse me while I have a talk with mister Johnny Walker and try to numb the pain.